One doesn't need to be locked up to be imprisoned. There is a generation walking around with invisible bars.
They know the life exists, the house, the stability, the reward for showing up and doing the right thing for thirty years. They know people have it. They just can't imagine how to get there. Not "it's hard"; they literally cannot construct a realistic path from where they are to where they're supposed to end up.
I’ve always been fascinated by the antigambling crowd. We all wake up and take hundreds of gambles a day, and not just the big ones. What to eat. Whether to skip the workout. Whether to open that email now or later. Whether to speak up or stay quiet. Whether to save, spend, or wait one more year. Even doing nothing is a bet that the world won’t change without you.
Risk isn’t some special activity people opt into it’s actually the default state. What’s changed is that the old, socially approved gambles stopped paying in a way people actually believe in. “Work hard, be patient, stay the course” used to feel like a reasonable bet. So when people move toward obvious, high-variance bets, it’s not because they suddenly love risk. It’s because like you mention they want agency, to choose their gamble instead of having one quietly imposed on them.
Telling people to “stop gambling” misses that completely. They’re already gambling. They’re just reallocating where. If that behavior is structural and not going away, the real asymmetry isn’t trying to beat the house. It’s owning the parts of the system that profit from activity itself. I wrote a related piece on that idea, basically own the casino rather than play in it, for anyone curious:
It's utterly insane that you were able to put this in words. This is the truth, it's the ugly that very few want to talk about and even fewer can even identify as a legitimate predicament (outsiders are oblivious)
I have to draw many similarities from degenning and the "golden handcuffs" of commission sales jobs, particularly door to door.
I hope that participants understand that the most important part of "finally winning" or hitting the play that "changes everything" is knowing when to leave the casino.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and your basic stipulation makes a lot of sense: people are searching for agency. Twenty years ago, the traditional path looked like a safe bet. Remember Steve Jobs' commencement speech? Stay hungry, stay foolish. Don't settle for a boring career, try to build things. Anyone who mentioned the word "start-up" automatically assumed a kind of mystical aura.
Then house prices skyrocketed in every major city, tuition fees became a lifelong debt sentence, and affordability worsened. The traditional path no longer looked just dull, but became a bad proposition: a high cost, high risk, and low reward one.
Then Covid arrived, and people discovered they could exercise agency by speculating in the market. The bubble boomed and popped, but it taught a lesson: if you pick the right meme stock, the right crypto, or whatever new trend imposes itself, you can ride the wave. You know it's a game of musical chairs, but one where you can actually apply agency. That changes everything psychologically.
And now AI threatens to make us all irrelevant: moat-less professionals who look faintly ridiculous next to a chatbot that thinks faster, communicates more effectively, and outperforms accomplished graduates across a growing range of tasks.
I agree that the environment of the last thirty years has systematically dismantled the prospect of a meaningful traditional career path for most people. The quest for agency, in that context, is not an irrational one from the perspective of the individual. We know it is collective madness, the house always wins, but it gives you the illusion of control.
Great read. I'd be really great to get your take on historical precedents / parallels on this. I'm sure there's a lot to learn from history on this topic, especially when it comes to inequality (throughout ups and downs).
I’ve always been fascinated by the antigambling crowd. We all wake up and take hundreds of gambles a day, and not just the big ones. What to eat. Whether to skip the workout. Whether to open that email now or later. Whether to speak up or stay quiet. Whether to save, spend, or wait one more year. Even doing nothing is a bet that the world won’t change without you.
Risk isn’t some special activity people opt into it’s actually the default state. What’s changed is that the old, socially approved gambles stopped paying in a way people actually believe in. “Work hard, be patient, stay the course” used to feel like a reasonable bet. So when people move toward obvious, high-variance bets, it’s not because they suddenly love risk. It’s because like you mention they want agency, to choose their gamble instead of having one quietly imposed on them.
Telling people to “stop gambling” misses that completely. They’re already gambling. They’re just reallocating where. If that behavior is structural and not going away, the real asymmetry isn’t trying to beat the house. It’s owning the parts of the system that profit from activity itself. I wrote a related piece on that idea, basically own the casino rather than play in it, for anyone curious:
https://www.ridireresearch.com/p/own-the-casino
It's utterly insane that you were able to put this in words. This is the truth, it's the ugly that very few want to talk about and even fewer can even identify as a legitimate predicament (outsiders are oblivious)
I have to draw many similarities from degenning and the "golden handcuffs" of commission sales jobs, particularly door to door.
I hope that participants understand that the most important part of "finally winning" or hitting the play that "changes everything" is knowing when to leave the casino.
Amazing Read, made me stop and just think about life for a second!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and your basic stipulation makes a lot of sense: people are searching for agency. Twenty years ago, the traditional path looked like a safe bet. Remember Steve Jobs' commencement speech? Stay hungry, stay foolish. Don't settle for a boring career, try to build things. Anyone who mentioned the word "start-up" automatically assumed a kind of mystical aura.
Then house prices skyrocketed in every major city, tuition fees became a lifelong debt sentence, and affordability worsened. The traditional path no longer looked just dull, but became a bad proposition: a high cost, high risk, and low reward one.
Then Covid arrived, and people discovered they could exercise agency by speculating in the market. The bubble boomed and popped, but it taught a lesson: if you pick the right meme stock, the right crypto, or whatever new trend imposes itself, you can ride the wave. You know it's a game of musical chairs, but one where you can actually apply agency. That changes everything psychologically.
And now AI threatens to make us all irrelevant: moat-less professionals who look faintly ridiculous next to a chatbot that thinks faster, communicates more effectively, and outperforms accomplished graduates across a growing range of tasks.
I agree that the environment of the last thirty years has systematically dismantled the prospect of a meaningful traditional career path for most people. The quest for agency, in that context, is not an irrational one from the perspective of the individual. We know it is collective madness, the house always wins, but it gives you the illusion of control.
Really great read!
Too hip.
I really enjoyed this read and love the way you write. Any book recommendations?
Great read. I'd be really great to get your take on historical precedents / parallels on this. I'm sure there's a lot to learn from history on this topic, especially when it comes to inequality (throughout ups and downs).
Thank you for this great post 🙏